Macau Casino Monthly gaming figures suggest full-year target could be exceeded.
Macau’s casino revenue forecast for 2025 is considered conservative by industry operators, as monthly gaming figures suggest the full-year target could be exceeded. The government recently revised its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast to MOP 228 billion ($28.2 billion), averaging MOP 19 billion per month. However, from January to May 2025, Macau’s GGR totaled MOP 97.7 billion, averaging MOP 19.54 billion monthly, already surpassing the updated monthly benchmark.
May 2025 marked a post-pandemic high with revenue reaching MOP 21.19 billion, about 82% of the same month in 2019. This strong performance was boosted by the Labour Day Golden Week holiday, which attracted nearly 850,000 visitors. Analysts expect that the second half of the year will benefit from seasonal tourism peaks, including the summer school break, National Day Golden Week, and Christmas season, potentially pushing revenues higher.
A Citi report forecasts June GGR at MOP 18.5 billion, and if achieved, the first half’s total would reach MOP 115.7 billion. The remaining MOP 112.3 billion needed to meet the full-year projection would represent a slight dip from current levels, suggesting the government’s forecast might be cautious
Macau’s gaming sector also benefits from signs of macroeconomic recovery, such as stabilizing China’s housing and stock markets, a stronger renminbi, and eased travel restrictions. Although average spending per visitor may be declining, the overall increase in tourist arrivals helps sustain gaming revenues. Operators believe a 3% to 5% year-on-year increase in second-half revenue is feasible, reinforcing optimism about Macau casino revenue growth.
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